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September Feeder Cattle opened higher, made the session low at 357.45 and rallied the rest of the session to the high and another new all-time high at 363.00. It settled near the high at a new all-time high settlement at 362.675. September futures continued its move to ever higher prices as traders expect the index to keep moving higher, in my opinion. Cash prices are setting new records on a continuous basis across all weight classes as producers need to get supply and are willing to pay any price to get that supply. There is fear that supplies outside feedlots may not be as plentiful as expected causing aggressive buying by feedlots and backgrounders. Sellers are taking advantage by putting cattle for sale earlier than planned, taking un-weaned cattle and putting them out there at higher levels than normal. They want to take advantage of the higher prices trading at the present time and reduce their risk going forward. The rally in Feeders has taken futures to lofty levels versus the index so buyer be wary. We are nearing the end of the month and profit taking could take place at any time, in my opinion. We’ll see!... A breakdown from settlement could see price test support at 359.00. Support then comes in at 354.55. If settlement holds, price could test pivot resistance at 364.667, R2 is at 366.60 and R3 is at 370.22.

The Feeder Cattle Index increased and is at 350.18 as of 08/21/2025. 

October Live Cattle opened lower and made the low at 234.125. It reversed course and rallied the rest of the session to the high and a new all-time high at 238.125. It settled near the high at a new all-time high settlement at 237.875. I think the Fed Governor’s speech in Wyoming this morning inspired bulls to come in and take prices higher in front of the Cattle-on-Feed report. The prospect of rates moving lower could put more money in consumer’s hands, potentially keeping beef demand on the upswing. Cash set a new all-time high for dressed cattle at 292.00 this week and tied the high for live cattle at 247.00. The average price could make a new all-time high this week continuing its dramatic moves higher. The on-feed report came out after the close and the placements came in higher than anticipated at 94%. This was at the high end of trade guesses. This may set cattle back on the open but I don’t believe any decline will last as bulls could look at any drop in price as a buying opportunity. All I hear from producers is supply is lacking and the packer has to be aggressive if he wants to buy cattle. With the cutout moving higher, producers aren’t willing to drop price. The packer ended up slaughtering more cattle than people expected earlier in the week. The expected slaughter was around 530,000 early in the week but as analysts re-evaluated the recent cutout surge, the estimate rose to 540,000 to 550,000. Estimated slaughter came in at 547,000, near the upper end of the new estimate. This could pressure packers going forward as they may not have enough cattle under their control  to meet their needs after the Labor Day Holiday week.   We’ll see!... A failure from settlement could see price test support at 235.625. Support then comes in at 232.75. If price can hold settlement, it could test pivot resistance at 239.25. Resistance then comes in at R2 at 240.69. R3 is at 243.25. Cattle on Feed shown below. 

Boxed beef cutouts ticked higher as choice cutouts ticked higher 0.05 to 407.91 and select ticked higher 0.06 to 383.66. The choice/ select spread narrowed and is at 24.25 and the load count was 118.

Friday’s estimated slaughter is 96,000, which is above last week’s 82,000 and below last year’s 115,793. Saturday slaughter is expected to be 1,000, which is below last week’s 2,000 and last year’s 9,418. The estimated slaughter for the week (so far) is 547,000, which is above last week’s 530,000 and below last year’s 608,984.

The USDA report LM_Ct131 states:  Thus far Friday negotiated cash trade was moderate on moderate to good demand in the Texas Panhandle. Compared to the latest established market two weeks ago live purchases in the Texas Panhandle traded 5.00 higher at 240.00. In Kansas trade was light to moderate on moderate to good demand. Compared to last week in Kansas, live purchases traded mostly 5.00 higher at 240.00. Trade was mostly inactive on moderate demand in Nebraska and the Western Cornbelt. Not enough purchases in those regions for an adequate market test. On Thursday in Nebraska live purchases in Nebraska were steady at 245.00 with dressed purchases on Wednesday ranging from 385.00- 392.00. On Thursday, in the Western Cornbelt live purchases traded at 245.00. The last established dressed market was last week ranging from 380.00-385.00 on a light test.

The USDA is indicating cash trades for live cattle from 237.00 – 247.00 and from 380.00 – 392.00 on a dressed basis (so far).

United States Cattle on Feed Down 2 Percent 

Cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market in the United States for feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head totaled 10.9 million head on August 1, 2025. The inventory was 2 percent below August 1, 2024. 

Placements in feedlots during July totaled 1.60 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Net placements were 1.55 million head. During July, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 340,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 245,000 head, 700-799 pounds were 365,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 378,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds and greater were 75,000 head.

Marketings of fed cattle during July totaled 1.75 million head, 6 percent below 2024. Other disappearance totaled 51,000 head during July, 9 percent below 2024.

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.**

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Livestock Analyst

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

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